Eskom spokesperson Fani Zulu said that at present the price for electricity was unsustainably low. Various solutions to the electricity crisis would "certainly impact" on the cost of power supplies.

Zulu said that for the some years Eskom had supplied electricity at a low cost and South Africans had enjoyed low tariffs compared to the rest of the world.

Minerals and Energy Minister Lindiwe Hendricks said in written reply to a parliamentary question yesterday that Eskom had embarked on an R84 billion capital expenditure infrastructure plan over the next five years to address the electricity needs of South Africa.

"Although South Africa has adequate coal reserves, it is important that fuel sources be diversified. Therefore, various fuel sources will be considered, including the use of combined cycle gas turbines, nuclear, renewables such as solar and wind power, as well as additional hydro imports from neighbouring countries."

Experts in the field confirmed that major price increases were on the cards. They are retired Eskom council member Christo Viljoen, independent energy researcher and former University of Cape Town academic Andrew Kenny, and director of UCT's Energy Research Centre Kevin Bennett.

The crisis was predicted about 10 years ago when the government, assuming it could attract private partners to provide electricity, placed a moratorium on Eskom building more power stations.

Viljoen said the seven new gas turbines to top up the Western Cape - four in Atlantis and three in Mossel Bay - ran at very high generating costs. Therefore they could only be used during peak demand hours and could not be used to provide electricity continuously.

Viljoen said bringing the three mothballed coal power stations back to life would be costly. Eskom has calculated that this would cost R12-billion.

He warned that the three power stations were old and outdated, and it was doubtful if their redeployment could be technologically and economically successful.

A further concern was that Eskom's existing 24 power stations were old and coming to the end of their useful economic life. They would have to be replaced. Plans were needed for building new power stations.

Viljoen said, in the long term, the prototype nuclear Pebble Bed Modular Reactor being developed held much promise and certainly was a viable solution. But the first commercial unit would only be available by 2013. While it was fail-safe, "this will clearly not solve Eskom's predicament for the immediate future".

"Wind power is unfortunately not the holy grail of electricity supply for the future. Despite this energy source, wind, being free, the very high capital investment required and the high maintenance costs result in high generating costs."

He said solar heating water systems could help alleviate demand on mainstream electricity. But each unit costs R15 000. In Spain all new houses had to have one installed.

"Its cost is relatively low and there are still a lot of coal reserves. But pollution remains a problem and the country could face increasing pressure for its gas emissions from the international world," said Bennett.

He said there was no coal in the Western Cape so the short-term solution would be to increase the number of gas turbines for electricity generation even though it was very costly.

Even so, costs were relative because the economic blow that industry suffered from power failures far outweighed the money it would be willing to fork out for uninterrupted electricity supply.

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